Background Information

A number of underlying demographic trends will significantly impact land use pressures and development patterns in the City of Afton over the next 20 years. Those pressures on Afton are important to understand because they have evolved and increase in the years since the last update of the Comprehensive Plan (see Appendix B for a complete demographic analysis). 

Afton has long been a desirable place to live. During the 1970's and 1980's, improvements in transportation and technology have also made it an accessible place to live.  The rising affluence amongst those in the “baby boomer[1]” generation, who in the 1990’s and early 21^st century were in their peak earning years, made property in Afton highly sought-after.  Reasonable commuting distances to the Twin Cities metropolitan area, good schools, low crime rates, and a peaceful and tranquil landscape, made living in Afton a prime alternative for those who could afford to do so.

While the result has not changed – Afton is and will remain a highly sought-after location – new forces will shape and influence Afton over the next twenty years.

Aging and Homogenous Population

The population of Afton is aging, but more significantly is that it is not being replenished with younger people.  The median age in 1990 was 35.8, but by 2000 it had grown to 42.5.  In that same time period there was a dramatic decrease in the number of residents between the ages of 20 to 34, from 432 in 1990 to 262 in 2000[2].  Many parents who moved to Afton in the 1990’s are now “empty nesters”[3]. 

These aging trends foretell a significant property turnover in the coming years, either from people downsizing their home, shifting to a lower-maintenance lifestyle or through increased mortality rates amongst homeowners. Without a built-in replacement population looking to upgrade within the community, most of the new owners will come from outside of Afton. 

While today’s residents can hope that these new property owners share their desire for rural living, there is no guarantee that they – or those that are departing and seeking the highest return on their investment – will maintain those values.  If they do not, there will be increased pressure to change aspects of this plan or adopt ordinance language inconsistent with it.

High Housing Values

The median housing value in Afton is significantly higher than both the median housing values of homes in Washington County and the State of Minnesota[4].  This reflects the fact that Afton is a desirable place to live and that the demand for housing in the city is high. 

Most residents indicate that the desirability of housing in Afton is directly tied to the rural lifestyle and the connection to the natural environment that living in Afton provides[5].  People consistently indicate that they value the low-density development pattern and are willing to pay to secure that.

It is not clear what the future will bring in terms of housing values in Afton.  Current trends statewide and nationwide suggest that housing values will stagnate or decline[6], although if Afton remains an exclusive community with a limited housing supply, housing values could buck the trends.  What is clear is that the demographic makeup of the community is going to naturally create more sellers, and thus more properties for sale, than has been experienced in recent history.

With more properties for sale, and with appreciation of those properties slowed or potentially reversed, there will be more pressure to consider development patterns different than the one clearly desired by current residents.{Unsubstantiated Statement}  While this may prove beneficial to a few property owners in the short term, the long-term interests of all property owners in the City of Afton are with maintaining the current development pattern, which is the source of value.

High housing values limit the ability of Afton to accommodate young families and others that could help meet employment demands. While workforce housing is available in neighboring Woodbury, so are a significant number of jobs.  For the commercial area of the Afton Old Village to grow and be successful, business owners are going to need local employees or will need to tap into the workforce of neighboring communities.

Low Tax Rate but High Tax Amount

Afton residents pay a much lower property tax rate than residents of other cities in Minnesota[7].  This would seem to suggest that Afton residents do not pay much in taxes, which is incorrect.  In reality, the actual amount of property tax paid per resident is significantly higher than in the average Minnesota city[8].

The residents of Afton pay for their development pattern through higher amounts of taxation.  The high values of property in Afton allow for a tax rate that is low, but the dispersed development and low density of Afton creates a situation where there is a high service demand per resident.  In other words, the tax base is there, it is just owned by fewer people. 

As with most cities, there is an understandable pressure in Afton to keep taxes low.  With the tax base Afton has, there is no reason why the rate of taxation should not remain amongst the lowest in the state.  However, the desirable way of life in Afton comes at a price. While residents in Afton have higher property values and have enjoyed, and will likely continue to enjoy, greater appreciation of their property than will other parts of Minnesota, they will also continue to pay more in taxes to support their investment.

As properties change hands in coming years, there will be continued pressure to reduce the amount of taxes paid per capita.  This is healthy so long as the City does not respond to that pressure by adopting a strategy to grow the tax base through increased residential development or commercial development outside of the Old Village.  Such a strategy would spread the amount of tax over a greater population and, in the short term, lower the individual amount of tax paid.  The offset, however, is that the demand for increased services would drive up the overall rate of taxation and the size of Afton’s city government. 

Residents who do not join in this new development pattern would experience the worst financial impacts: increasing rates of taxation on a highly valued property that is no longer appreciating.  Those property owners would be, in a sense, subsidizing the new development. 

Conclusion

Afton has established a development pattern that residents value and is in high demand throughout the region.  As the population in Afton ages, it is anticipated that there will be an increase in the number of people seeking to sell their Afton property.  This will create a number of new pressures to change the overall development pattern.  While a change may benefit an individual property owner in the short term, it is in the interests of all Afton residents to maintain the current development pattern.

This Comprehensive Plan acknowledges these pressures and seeks to address them by reinforcing the existing development pattern in the City of Afton.